History favours Man City as Premier League title race lasts until the final day for the 10th time

It could’ve been no other way. Manchester City’s bid to win an unprecedented fourth consecutive Premier League title will go down to the wire.

Pep Guardiola’s side have a two-point lead on Arsenal heading into the 2023/24 climax after Tuesday’s 2-0 victory at Tottenham Hotspur.

Man City must beat West Ham United at home to defend the crown. Otherwise, they’ll depend on the Gunners’ home result against a resurgent Everton.

For the tenth time in Premier League history, we’ll have the winner after the last matchday and the previous occasions suggest City will claim another success.

Every time the title was decided on the final day, the table-topping team ahead of Matchday 38 was crowned champions, painting a bleak picture for Mikel Arteta’s side.

Adding to Arsenal’s scepticism, Man City are all too familiar with this scenario, having claimed four of their nine Premier League titles under similar circumstances.


Champions – Blackburn Rovers

Runners-up – Manchester United

Liverpool 2-1 Blackburn

West Ham 1-1 Man Utd

In the early days of the Premier League era, fans first went into the last day with a sense of trepidation and suspense as Blackburn pipped Man Utd to the trophy.

Liverpool legend Kenny Dalglish couldn’t have imagined fate would take him to his beloved Anfield for one of the most iconic moments of his coaching career.

Harry Redknapp’s stoppage-time free-kick inspired Blackburn to a last-gasp triumph in front of the Kop that celebrated the loss like no other, knowing it condemned Man Utd to a second-place finish.


Champions – Man Utd

Runners-up – Newcastle United

Middlesbrough 0-3 Man Utd

Newcastle 1-1 Tottenham Hotspur

What goes around, comes around!

A year after Blackburn broke their hearts, Man Utd did the same to Newcastle as Sir Alex Ferguson won his third Premier League title in charge of the Red Devils.

In one of the most memorable title comebacks, the Old Trafford outfit overhauled a 12-point deficit in January to conquer the division during the club’s most dominant domestic sequences ever.


Champions – Man Utd

Runners-up – Arsenal

Man Utd 2-1 Tottenham

Arsenal 1-0 Aston Villa

There’s nothing Man Utd fans wouldn’t do to taste that feeling of invincibility again.

As was the case on Tuesday, Arsenal needed their London rivals to do them a big favour, only to see Spurs throw away an early lead at Old Trafford.

Older generations remember the day Nwankwo Kanu’s winner against Villa went in vain and can only hope history will not repeat itself this weekend.


Champions – Man Utd

Runners-up – Chelsea

Wigan Athletic 0-2 Man Utd

Chelsea 1-1 Bolton Wanderers

Back in the day, it was inevitable. Whatever the circumstances, Ferguson would always find a way to get the job done, as he expertly did down the final stretch of his trophy-laden stint at the Theatre of Dreams.

Man Utd and Chelsea entered the final day level on points at the summit, with the Red Devils narrowly ahead on goal difference.

While Ferguson’s side withstood the pressure to dispatch Wigan on the hostile ground, Chelsea conceded late at home to Bolton, setting the tone for United’s Champions League triumph a fortnight later.


Champions -Chelsea

Runners-up – Man Utd

Chelsea 8-0 Wigan

Man Utd 4-0 Stoke City

Chelsea gave the most decorated Premier League manager a taste of his own medicine the following year, doing so in remarkable fashion.

Despite Man Utd’s emphatic home win against Stoke, Chelsea showed no mercy to Wigan as Stamford Bridge witnessed one of the most spectacular victories in its 147-year history.


Champions – Man City

Runners-up – Man Utd

Man City 3-2 Queens Park Rangers

Sunderland 0-1 Man Utd

The 2011/12 Premier League season finale is undoubtedly one of the most dramatic in football history. It was the only time goal difference served as a tie-breaker to determine the Premier League winner.

Man City had a seemingly straightforward task against relegation-battling Queens Park Rangers at the Etihad Stadium, only to fall 2-1 behind heading into second-half stoppage time.

Sergio Aguero’s last-minute winner etched the Cityzens into Premier League folklore, rendering United’s 1-0 victory at Sunderland meaningless.


Champions – Man City

Runners-up – Liverpool

Man City 2-0 West Ham

Liverpool 2- 1 Newcastle

As aforementioned, perennial champions Man City have developed a habit of snatching the championships from their fiercest rivals in the dying embers of a campaign.

However, unlike the previous example, they did it without much fuss, going 2-0 up before runners-up Liverpool went in front against Newcastle at home.

Steven Gerrard’s infamous slip against Chelsea two weeks before was the beginning of the end of Brendan Rodgers’ side, with a 3-3 draw at Crystal Palace sealing their fate in the penultimate round.


Champions – Man City

Runners-up – Liverpool

Brighton & Hove Albion 1-4 Man City

Liverpool 2-0 Wolverhampton Wanderers

Have you started to feel the sense of inevitability already? Liverpool were in a similar position in 2018/19 to Arsenal this season.

Brighton’s opener offered the Reds a glimmer of hope, yet the celebrations lasted for barely a minute as Man City made their 97-point tally irrelevant.


Champions – Man City

Runners-up – Liverpool

Man City 3-2 Aston Villa

Liverpool 3-1 Wolves

Close, but no cigar! Such has been the story of Jurgen Klopp’s decade-long tenure at Anfield.

In the first post-pandemic campaign, Liverpool came agonisingly close to capturing their second Premier League title under the German boss.

When Villa took a two-goal cushion at the Etihad heading into the last 15 minutes, it looked like the stars had aligned for the Reds’ elusive 20th league triumph.

But Guardiola’s charges were relentless. They only needed five minutes to put three goals past Emiliano Martinez, with former captain Ilkay Gundogan landing a hammer blow.

Although it wasn’t as dramatic as Aguero’s strike a decade earlier, it was as closest as anyone got to replicating such an iconic moment.

The only question Arsenal fans have right now is – will karma finally turn its back on Man City?

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